Numbers that will define MLB offseason

Baseball is a numbers-driven sport. Analytics rule today’s player evaluations and determine so much of what goes into contract and trade negotiations.

As the offseason leaks into its third week, there hasn’t been much news in terms of player movement. That will likely change in a few weeks when the MLB Winter Meetings take place Dec. 9-12. There could be a shocking move before then.

Whenever the time comes for the biggest free agents to land new deals and teams to engage in blockbusters, numbers will be involved.

There’s a potential for billions of dollars to be spent this offseason. Those figures alone are fun to think about. We’re diving a little deeper into it to find numbers that will impact the offseason and the subsequent seasons ahead.

$700 million | Soto vs. Ohtani’s total salary

Jaws dropped last December when Shohei Ohtani’s contract numbers were disclosed. A $700 million deal was unimaginable but this once-in-a-century player earned that astronomical figure.

Will Juan Soto be the next record-breaker?

Whether he’s targeting $700 million or not, Soto might easily hit that number. There’s little doubt he’ll go to the highest bidder and it’s not out of the question that a team offers at least $700 million.

Soto is three years younger than Ohtani was when he signed (26 vs. 29). He’s also fully healthy, playing in 150+ games every full season since 2019.

Only a handful of teams can afford to pay a player (or two) $700 million, but those who can appear eager to pursue Soto. The Yankees, Mets and Dodgers all figure to be in play and will likely meet with Soto soon.

Will a team offer $700 million out of the gate? Are deferrals a possibility? How many years will it take? Regardless of the numbers, the Juan Soto free agency saga will be fascinating to watch.

700 innings & 15 fWAR | Threshold for top-tier pitching contract

Workhorse starting pitchers are few and far between in today’s game. Only a handful of teams can boast a true bonafide ace. There may be a few available this winter.

Six pitchers have tossed over 700 innings and accumulated at least 15 fWAR over the past four seasons: Corbin Burnes, Zack Wheeler, Kevin Gausman, Aaron Nola, Logan Webb, and Dylan Cease.

Four signed long-term deals (5+ years) during that period, three since 2023. The longest contract is Aaron Nola’s seven-year, $172 million deal. The highest AAV is Zack Wheeler’s three-year, $126 million extension that kicks in next season.

How will those numbers impact the interest in Burnes, Max Fried and Blake Snell? Burnes is the only one of the three on that list, ranking fourth in innings and second in fWAR since 2021.

He’s been healthier and better than Fried and Snell while also being a tad younger. Burnes will likely get the largest deal of any starter on the market. Will he top $25 million annually is the question.

If he doesn’t, what does that mean for Fried and Snell? Few teams will give a starter more than five years and settling for less (and subsequently less money) might not be on their radars. It could be a wait-and-see game among the trio.

22.45 percent | Best MLB Draft lottery odds for No. 1 pick

The MLB Draft added a wrinkle with a lottery, first implemented for the 2024 draft. A shock occurred as the Cleveland Guardians, who owned the ninth-best odds to get the top pick, shot up to select first overall.

For comparison’s sake, the San Francisco Giants own the ninth-highest odds this year at 1.9 percent.

The Colorado Rockies and Miami Marlins, the National League’s worst teams in 2024, are tied for the highest odds at 22.45 percent.

They’re followed by the Los Angeles Angels (17.96) and Washington Nationals (10.20). Those are the only four teams with more than a 10 percent chance to earn the No. 1 pick.

More drama awaits this year. The 2025 MLB Draft Lottery is set for Dec. 10 @ 5:30 p.m.

85 wins | Don’t talk about playoffs!

So much has been said about the latest shift in the playoff format, mainly the argument around whether the bye is worth it. (It most definitely is.)

What hasn’t been talked about much since the 12-team format began in 2022 is the target number of wins to reach the MLB postseason.

The lowest win totals of the worst playoff teams in the past three seasons were 86 (Tigers in 2024), 84 (D-backs/Marlins in 2023) and 86 (Rays in 2022). The average of 85 gives us the playoff target number.

11 of the 36 playoff teams won fewer than 90 games, while only two of the 18 division winners won fewer than 90. Since 2022, division winners averaged 96 wins.

Last season, 14 teams won 85 games while four others finished .500 or better. Half of the 85-win teams did not reach that total in 2023 while four had losing records.

As different as teams operate, most should be striking a model to get them 85 wins. A rewatch of Moneyball might not hurt. I don’t want my guys paying for soda.

(Thumbnail courtesy: Jim McIsaac / Getty Images Sport / Getty)